Macro Dovish Tone Boosts Tin Price Rebound; Tight Supply and Weak Demand Limit Upside Room [SMM Tin Noon Review]

SHFE Tin Midday Analysis on August 25, 2025

During the midday session today, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract showed a low opening and high closing trend. It opened at 266,000 yuan/mt in the morning, climbing to 271,090 yuan/mt during the session, mainly due to improved macro sentiment and support from the LME. The contract closed at 269,340 yuan/mt at noon, up 3,010 yuan/mt or 1.13% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume and open interest both increased, indicating a significant rise in market trading sentiment. LME tin prices also strengthened, closing at $33,845/mt overnight, with a daily gain of 1.11% and a weekly increase of 0.45%, showing enhanced short-term bullish expectations for tin prices.

From a macro perspective, Fed Chairman Powell delivered dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, emphasizing the rising risk of a weak job market and hinting at a possible interest rate cut in September. Market bets on a September rate cut surged above 90%, causing the US dollar index to pull back to around 97.7. All three major US stock indices rose, and improved risk appetite boosted the prices of dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals. The domestic central bank also stepped up liquidity support, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan through MLF in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of incremental operations, further bolstering market confidence.

In the short term, tin prices are driven by macro sentiment. Rising expectations of an interest rate cut, coupled with a tight supply balance, support the price rebound. However, weak demand and high inventory levels limit the upside room. In the afternoon, attention will be on whether the most-traded SHFE tin can hold above the 270,000 yuan/mt resistance level and how LME tin performs at the $34,000/mt mark. If downstream restocking improves as the peak season approaches, it may further solidify the rebound trend; conversely, if spot tin struggles to catch up after the digestion of macro tailwinds, prices may return to a range-bound pattern.